Forecast for June 26, 2008

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in SW Manitoba/SE Saskatchewan, and NW Ontario.

...Synopsis...2 PM CDT UPDATE...

Overall, a large part of the prairies is forecasted to be unstable tomorrow, mostly to do with daytime heating factors. With a trigger, garden-variety non-severe thunderstorms are possible there.

As for our severe threat region:

1.) SK/MB: Here, moisture is surging in, and more than expected, destabilizing the atmosphere in a larger area than previously anticipated as result of an approaching low pressure system. Given sufficient heating and moisture forecasted, CAPE values above 2000 J/Kg. are forecasted to develop as the atmosphere destabilizes from West of Regina to around Brandon. With the approach of a front to set storms off, severe weather is possible there. Shear values do not look too impressive, so tornadoes aren't a likelihood, but can't be ruled out.

As for the rest of the severe risk region east of Brandon...it appears storms that may develop will move eastwards in the evening, potentially developing into a severe MCS. I will watch this potential as the day goes on.

MAPS

Severe Thunderstorm Threat:



Tornado Threat:

If there is a change to this forecast, it will be updated anytime today until the threat ends.

Jon